Put the new HD into the machine and tried to do a direct dd copy from the old HD in a USB cradle, but the operation failed at the same point twice (after about 15GB). In the end, I created a new encrypted volume on the new disk, formatted it as ext4 and set an scp job going to bring everything down from Rutabaga. The results will be pretty messy, I know, but there's no real alternative. I'll have to do a bunch of chmods to handle .svn folders and such; it may be simpler to check things out again. If it's possible to get my VMs off the old drive, that's the next thing to try because those aren't backed up. Only the Windows one gets used, though, and that's easy to rebuild if necessary.